Category Archives: Politics

“There’ll Be More Death”

The American oligarchy has spoken. For wealthy Americans, the cure is worse than the disease. We will restart the economy, regardless of how many lives are lost. Donald Trump is deliberately implementing a policy that he knows will result in hundreds of thousands of additional deaths.

From President Trump:

There’ll be more death. The virus will pass, with or without a vaccine. And I think we’re doing very well on the vaccines but, with or without a vaccine, it’s going to pass and we’re going to be back to normal.

We can’t keep our country closed. We have to open our country. . . . Will some people be affected? Yes. Will some people be affected badly? Yes. But we have to get our country open.

I used to say 65 thousand, and now I’m saying 80 or 90. And it goes up, and it goes up rapidly.

And look, we’re going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100 thousand people.

From Governor Greg Abbott, as he announced the reopening of Texas businesses:

Listen, the fact of the matter is pretty much every scientific and medical report shows that when you have a reopening—whether you want to call it a reopening of businesses or just a reopening of the economy—in the aftermath of something like this, it will actually lead to an increase and spread.

From former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie:

The American people have gone through significant death before [in World Wars I and II] . . . and we’ve survived it. We sacrificed those lives.

Christie added that the sacrifice was necessary “to stand up for the American way of life.” When asked whether the American people would be willing to tolerate this many deaths, he replied, “They’re gonna have to.”

Drawing on a military analogy, Trump and Christie have referred to those who are about to die as “warriors,” hoping we will see them as having sacrificed their lives for their country. In fact, Trump is not making war on the coronavirus but surrendering to it in order to achieve herd immunity. As Vox columnist David Roberts noted, rather than referring to workers, the elderly and the sick as “warriors,” a more appropriate term might be “cannon fodder.”

How many Americans will die? On May 4, the New York Times leaked a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicting that, if we reopen the economy, we will have 200,000 new cases and 3000 deaths per day by June 1. This is up from the current 25,000 cases and 1700 deaths per day. Epidemiologists predict that, assuming a mortality rate of 1%, allowing deaths to continue until we achieve herd immunity will result in about 2 million American deaths.

As usual, as Trump and his surrogates were making these grim announcements, the corporate media were obediently obscuring their importance by distracting us with trivial “issues” such Trump’s decision to tour a face mask manufacturing facility without wearing a face mask.

Letting the virus run its course conveniently coincides with Trump’s reelection strategy of hoping that a majority of Americans care more about their pocketbooks than the lives of their fellow citizens. Despite unanimous recommendations from experts that we need more COVID-19 testing, Trump rejected their advice, saying that “by doing all this testing, we make ourselves look bad.”  Does “ourselves” refer to the American people, or just the Trump administration?

It’s easy to dismiss Trump as an obvious sociopath, but he speaks for the American financial and political oligarchy that is quietly but ruthlessly taking pages out of the class warfare playbook. They began by passing trillions of dollars in bailouts, and ensuring that the majority of the funds would go to those corporations and individuals who are least in need of the money. (For details, see this article.) Needless to say, these bipartisan corporate welfare bills passed Congress almost unanimously.

However, in order to restart the economy, the corporate class still faces two problems. First, in order to reopen businesses, they must persuade workers (and sometimes consumers) to risk their lives and those of their families. This is to be accomplished through economic blackmail. Although figures are hard to come by, a high percentage—perhaps a majority—of working Americans are either ineligible for unemployment, or have not received it yet due to a bureaucratic system designed primarily to prevent fraud. Many of these same people have lost their health insurance. These workers will have to choose between risking death from COVID-19 and starvation.  (The weakest link in Trump’s plan may be the fact that consumers will usually not have to make this choice.)

Trump issued an executive order directing meat packing plants to remain open during the pandemic in spite of unsafe conditions. Republican governors of three states, Iowa, Oklahoma and Texas, have announced that workers who refuse to return to work when their workplace reopens will be ineligible for unemployment benefits. Denying benefits to people who have turned down a job is apparently legal and is likely to spread.

A second possible problem for corporations is that, should they fail to provide safe working conditions, they might be held legally responsible for the deaths or illnesses of their workers. Senator Mitch McConnell has announced that one of his conditions for approving any future coronavirus relief is that Congress grant employers immunity against any lawsuits from employees or their survivors.  Trump’s Justice Department has stated that they intend to take the side of meat-packing companies should they be sued by their workers for not providing a safe environment.

Whenever we turn on TV, we are bombarded by insipid messages from corporate America claiming “we’re all in this together” (and presumably all equally in need of the sponsor’s product). This message becomes a form of black humor in a country where not everyone has been rescued by the government and not everyone will be protected from harm.

You may also be interested in reading:

Did Ebola Influence the 2014 Elections (Revisited)?

The Changing Demographics of COVID-19

The media have given us a stereotype of the Americans most likely to have contracted the coronavirus. You probably think of COVID-19 as a disease primarily affecting the country’s urban poor. You have probably also read the news that African-Americans, and possibly Latinos, have been stricken at a rate higher than their percentage of the population. These generalizations are accurate, but things are changing.

In a brief paper, Dr. William Frey of the Brookings Institution analyzed date compiled by the New York Times in order to compare the demographic characteristics of those counties hardest hit by the virus at different points in time.

In the above chart, the second bar from the left shows the characteristics of those counties with an infection rate of 100 or more per 100,000 population as of March 29. The bar at the left shows the population baselines. As you can see, the hardest hit counties were more likely to be in the Northeast, more urban, and more likely to have voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

The next three bars show the characteristics of the new counties that reached the 100/100,000 rate during each of the next three weeks. These counties are increasingly located in the West, South and Midwest, they are more suburban and rural, and they are more likely than the early counties to have voted for Trump. In other words, the counties that are most affected by the coronavirus are gradually coming to resemble the demographics of the country as a whole.

This table shows a similar picture. Majority-white counties are catching up with counties with more minorities. The newly-affected counties are less likely to have a large immigrant population. The income data, however, are less consistent with the media stereotype, since the early counties contain more higher income people. I assume this is because the virus first took hold in cities with high income inequality like New York and Seattle. Over time, however, the income distribution is starting to resemble the baseline for the country.

These demographic shifts seem likely to have political implications. At the very least, white rural Republicans are not going to be able to dismiss the pandemic as somebody else’s problem. Frey suggests that they will become less receptive to Trump’s attempts to reopen American businesses. Fear of mortality will spread. In the past, such external threats have tended to help conservative candidates, but the situation is far too volatile to make a one-sided prediction. Will some people who voted for Trump in 2016 blame him for not keeping the danger away from their community?

You may also be interested in reading:

Did Ebola Influence the 2014 Elections (Revisited)?

Did Ebola Influence the 2014 Elections (Revisited)?

Social psychologists have known for a long time that (a) politically conservative people are more responsive to fear-arousing threats, such as news about terrorism or weather emergencies, and that (b) reminding them of these threats causes people to become more conservative in their attitudes. Due to COVID-19, this is a time when we are all confronting our own mortality. (How many of you, in the last six weeks, have thought about the current status of your will?) This raises the question of what effect the coronavirus will have on the 2020 elections.

This week the Association for Psychological Science reprinted a 2016 research study by Alec Beall and colleagues entitled “Infections and Elections: Did an Ebola Outbreak Influence the 2014 U. S. Federal Elections (And If So How)?” Unfortunately, the study is gated, so only members can read it, but I wrote a blog post about it on December 31, 2016, shortly after its publication. Here is that post. After you’ve read it, I’ll return with some comments (also in italics).

 

Republicans did very well on Election Day 2014, gaining control of the Senate for the first time in eight years and increasing their majority in the House of Representatives. Most pundits attributed these results to low turnout by Democrats in a non-presidential election year and to President Obama’s poor approval ratings, due primarily to the disastrous rollout of the Affordable Care Act earlier that year. But a recent paper by Alec Beall and two other psychologists at the University of British Columbia suggests that breaking news about the Ebola epidemic also played a significant role in the election outcome.

Their paper contains two studies, both of which are interrupted time series designs. In this design, data that are routinely collected are examined to see if they change after a specific event. In the first study, they analyzed the aggregate results of all polls conducted between September 1 and November 1, 2014 that asked respondents whether they intended to vote for a Democrat or a Republican in their upcoming House election. The “interruption” occurred when Center for Disease Control announced the first Ebola case in the U. S. on September 30. The research question was whether the poll results changed from before to after that date.

The above results show support for the Republican candidate minus support for the Democratic candidate in the month (a) and the week (b) before and after the Ebola story broke. In both cases, the temporal trends were significantly different from before to after September 30. The before and after lines had different slopes, and the shift was in favor of the Republican candidates. The authors also collected data from Google on the daily search volume for the term “Ebola,” and found that it too was positively related to Republican voting intentions.

Beall and his colleagues examined two possible alternative explanations—concern about terrorism and the economy. They measured daily search volume for the term “ISIS,” and checked the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, which was dropping at the time. Interest in ISIS was (surprisingly) negatively related to Republican voting intentions and the stock market had no significant effect.

In their second study, the authors looked at the 34 Senate races. They computed 34 state-specific polling averages by subtracting Democratic voting intentions from Republican intentions. Then they subtracted the September results from the October results. Thus, a higher number would indicate a shift toward the Republican candidate. The aggregate results showed a significant increase in Republican voting intentions after September 30.

However, not all states shifted in the same direction. Using Cook’s Partisan Voter Index, they determined whether each state had voted more for Republicans or Democrats in recent years. Then they analyzed the data separately for “red” and “blue” states. The results are shown below.

The changes were in the direction of the state’s dominant political party. In the red states, the Republican candidate did better after September 30. In the blue states, the Ebola scare seemed to help the Democrat, although the effect was smaller. This could also be interpreted as a shift toward the favorite, since candidates who were leading before September 30 tended to do even better after that date.

This study is part of a small but increasing body of research which shows that external threats that cause fear in the population seem to work to the advantage of conservative political candidates. In a previous post, I reported on a British study which indicated that the 2005 London bombings increased prejudice toward Muslims. More to the point is a 2004 study in which reminding participants of the 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center increased support for President George W. Bush in his campaign against John Kerry. These studies are consistent with older research suggesting that social threats are associated with an increase in authoritarianism in the U. S. population. Authoritarian attitudes are characterized by obedience to authority, hostility toward minority groups and a high degree of conformity to social norms.

Surprisingly, Beall and his colleagues did not mention terror management theory as a way of understanding their results. According to this theory, human awareness of the inevitability of death—called mortality salience—creates existential terror and the need to manage this terror. One way people manage terror is through defensive efforts to validate their own cultural world views—those attitudes that give their lives meaning and purpose. Previous research suggests that mortality salience results primarily in conservative shifts in attitudes, including support for harsher punishment for moral transgressors, increased attachment to charismatic leaders, and increases in religiosity and patriotism. (A charismatic leader is one whose influence depends on citizen identification with the leader or the nation-state, as in “Make America great again.”) The Bush v. Kerry study mentioned in the preceding paragraph was intended to be a test of terror management theory.

One of the effects of saturation coverage of the Ebola epidemic was to remind people of the possibility of their own death and that of loved ones. The results of the 2014 House elections are consistent with a terror management interpretation. The Senate results do not contradict the theory, since there was an overall shift in favor of Republican candidates, but they add an additional detail. In states that usually voted Democratic, the Ebola scare increased support for Democrats. If mortality salience causes people to reaffirm their cultural world views, this could have produced a shift toward liberalism in states in which the majority of citizens held progressive attitudes.

Research findings such as these suggest the possibility that political parties and the corporate media might strategically exaggerate threats in order to influence the outcomes of elections. Willer found that government-issued terror alerts between 2001 and 2004 were associated with stronger approval ratings of President Bush. Tom Ridge, Director of Homeland Security at the time, later admitted that he was pressured by the White House to increase the threat level before the 2004 election. Since that time, it has become routine for Republicans to emphasize threats to the public’s well-being more than Democrats, and evidence from the 2016 presidential debates suggests that the media gave greater attention to Republican issues.

Republicans made Ebola an issue in the 2014 election, claiming that President Obama was failing to adequately protect public health and arguing that he should close the borders and not allow Americans suffering from the virus back into the country for treatment. In retrospect, news coverage of the threat of Ebola appears to have created unnecessary panic. Analysis of the motives of the media decision makers is complicated by the knowledge that they also exaggerate threats because they believe that increasing public fear leads to higher ratings. Media Matters for America presented data showing that coverage of Ebola plummeted immediately after the 2014 election was over (see below). However, I know of no “smoking gun” showing that the corporate media deliberately created panic in order to help Republican candidates.

 

Addendum

It’s interesting to speculate about how the coronavirus affected the 2020 Democratic primary contest. The first known American death due to COVID-19 occurred near Seattle on February 28. The sudden reversal of fortune in which the most conservative candidate Joe Biden burst into the delegate lead at the expense of the most liberal candidate Bernie Sanders began with the South Carolina primary on Saturday, February 29, and continued with the Super Tuesday contests on March 3. Over that weekend, one of the top news stories was the dramatic spike in the number of infections in Europe. President Trump finally declared a national emergency on March 13, by which time the Democratic contest was essentially over. It seems plausible that the coronavirus was a background factor that helped convince Democrats not to risk going into the 2020 election with a candidate that Trump might brand a socialist, and to choose a more familiar candidate.

I’m not suggesting that the coronavirus will guarantee the reelection of President Trump or the election of any other Republican candidate. I’m sure you’ve noticed that the data in Beall’s study were collected within just a few days of the peak of publicity surrounding the Ebola virus. A lot can happen between now and November. In the unlikely event that the coronavirus is no longer a problem, its effect on the elections may be minimal. In the case of the president, the success with which he is perceived to have responded the emergency should logically be more important than the existence of the emergency itself. But the polling done thus far suggests that there is very little agreement among partisans on how effectively Trump has dealt with the crisis. And the Ebola study suggests that the pandemic could even influence the outcomes of down-ballot races for political offices have no direct effect on the epidemic or our recovery from it.

If nothing else, Beall’s research should alert us to the importance social context during an election, including external threats that are sometimes overlooked because they are not explicitly political. It should also make us mindful of politicians and media sources that attempt to either exaggerate or downplay these events.

Compared to What?

According to an October 22-24 The Economist/YouGov poll, 51% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of George W. Bush, while only 42% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Journalist Jacob Sugarman calls this “the single most depressing poll of Trump’s presidency.” He implies that our current president is implicated in this result.

George W. Bush told the American people the lie that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. His invasion of Iraq was illegal under international law. It resulted in the deaths of 4400 Americans and 268,000 Iraqis at a cost conservatively estimated at $2 trillion. It set off chaos in the Middle East and led indirectly to the formation of ISIS, sponsors of a terrorist threat that continues 14 years later. According to a Gallup poll, only 6% of Democrats had a favorable opinion of Bush when his presidency ended in January 2009. But now a majority of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him. How can we explain this?

Human judgment is context dependent. Today’s temperature will feel warm or cool depending on what the temperature was yesterday. Both assimilation and contrast effects can occur. If today’s temperature is similar to yesterday’s, it may be assimilated to yesterday’s and the two days perceived as more alike that they actually were. However, if there is a noticeable difference between yesterday’s and today’s temperatures, a contrast effect occurs, with the result that today’s temperature feels cooler when it follows a warmer day than when it follows a colder day.

What determines whether assimilation or contrast will occur? Assume we are comparing an object of judgment, called the target, to a standard of comparison. According to the inclusion/exclusion model of Norbert Schwarz and Herbert Bless, if the standard of comparison can be included within the target group, assimilation will occur, and the evaluation of the target will shift in the direction of the standard. However, if the standard cannot be included within the target—that is, if it is excluded—the target will be contrasted with the standard and its evaluation will shift in the opposite direction.

If that sounds complicated, here’s an example. In a 1992 study, Schwarz and Bless encouraged participants to think about a corrupt politician. They used German politicians, but an American example might be Richard Nixon. Participants were then asked to judge the trustworthiness of politicians in general, and the trustworthiness of several specific politicians. In this example, Richard Nixon is the standard by which other politicians are judged. Since Nixon is a member of the category of politicians, he is assimilated to the target group, and politicians in general are evaluated more negatively. However, when participants are asked to judge other politicians, say, Gerald Ford or Jimmy Carter, contrast effects occur. Richard Nixon is not Gerald Ford; they are mutually exclusive. If Nixon comes to mind when Ford is evaluated, they will be contrasted and Ford will be seen as more trustworthy than he would have been if the participants had not been thinking about Nixon.

According to an August 2017 survey by the American Psychological Association, a majority (59%) of American adults consider this to be the lowest point in our nation’s history that they can remember. The target of the Economist/You Gov survey was George W. Bush. Let’s assume that Donald Trump’s recent behavior has been very salient to most Americans. Even though respondents were not asked to compare Bush to Trump, he is now the standard to which all other presidents are compared. Since Bush is not Trump, he will be contrasted with Trump. In the survey, 91% of Democrats had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while 7% had a favorable opinion. Therefore, we can expect Bush to be evaluated more favorably by Democrats than he would have been had Trump not been our president.

The argument here is that Democrats consider Donald Trump to be so corrupt and so incompetent that, while he has a negative effect on the evaluation of politicians in general (an assimilation effect), he has a positive effect on the evaluation of all other specific politicians (a contrast effect). Compared to Donald Trump, any other past president looks good to Democrats, even George W. Bush.

You may also be interested in reading:

A Plague on Both Your Houses

The Stress of Politics

So Far, It Looks Like It Was the Racism

A “Chilling” Study? Chill!

Given the news media’s interest in surveys, a poorly-designed survey has the potential to spread a lot of misinformation. In late August, Dr. John Villasenor of UCLA surveyed 1500 college students’ understanding of and attitudes toward freedom of speech. He wrote up the results in an essay published by the Brookings Institution, explaining that the survey had not yet been subjected to peer review, but due to “the timeliness of the topic, I believe it is important to get some of the key results out in the public sphere immediately.”

The survey results were covered by several mainstream media, including CNN and the Wall Street Journal. They were summarized by Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post under the title “A chilling study shows how hostile college students are toward free speech.”

In his article, Dr. Villasenor reported five results of the survey.  Respondents were asked “Does the First Amendment protect ‘hate speech?’”  A plurality of 44% answered “no,” compared to 39% who said “yes,” and 16% who didn’t know. They were wrong, since the First Amendment protects offensive speech unless it is a threat or is directed toward producing imminent lawless action. Women were more likely than men to hold this incorrect belief.

Respondents were given the following hypothetical scenario.

A majority of students agreed, with Democrats being more likely than Republicans to condone shouting down a speaker.

They were also asked about the use of violence to silence a speaker.

The approval rate was much lower, but the fact that 19% approved of violence is certainly disconcerting. Men were more likely than women to condone violence.

Given the same scenario, respondents were asked whether “under the First Amendment, the on-campus organization sponsoring the event is legally required to ensure that the event includes not only the offensive speaker but also a speaker who presents an opposing view.” A majority (62%) incorrectly agreed that there was a legal requirement of balance.

Finally, respondents were given an item from a 2016 Gallup poll in which they were asked to choose between two types of university learning environments:

  • Option 1: Create a positive learning environment for all students by prohibiting certain speech or expression of viewpoints that are offensive or biased against certain groups of people.
  • Option 2: Create an open learning environment where students are exposed to all types of speech and viewpoints, even if it means allowing speech that is offensive or biased against certain groups of people.

A 53% majority chose the first option of prohibiting offensive speech, while 47% opted for the more open environment.

Shortly after the article was published, doubts about the validity of the survey were raised, with one critic labeling it “junk science.” It turns out that Dr. Villasenor is a professor of electrical engineering with no prior experience conducting surveys. His research was sponsored by the conservative Charles Koch Foundation. Of course, neither of these facts necessarily invalidates the survey.

A more important problem is that it is not clear how Dr. Villasenor obtained his sample. He does not claim that the survey was administered to a random sample of college students, but merely that the sample was “geographically diverse” and “approximately mirrors” the undergraduate population. This has led critics to conclude that he used a convenience sample of students who were available, but not necessarily representative of college students. Dr. Villasenor has acknowledged that this was an “opt-in” survey, a term used to refer to a survey using volunteers whose biases are unknown.

Dr. Villasenor further irritated survey experts by stating the confidence intervals, or the margin or error, around his results. This is inappropriate unless a random sample is used. (It should be noted that Dr. Villasenor covered his butt by saying that these confidence intervals were valid “to the extent” that his respondents were representative of college students, without actually claiming that they were representative.)

Dr. Villasenor also neglected to mention that his survey was conducted just a few days after the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, VA, in which a peaceful demonstrator was killed. This violent incident may have temporarily reduced students’ tolerance for offensive speech.

Finally, it should be noted that in 2016, when Gallup asked a nationally representative sample of college students, carefully chosen using probability sampling, to choose between the two learning environments described above, 78% chose Option 2, the more open environment. While it is possible that student attitudes have changed dramatically in the past year, it is also possible that differences in sampling were responsible for the discrepancy.

Catherine Rampell defended Dr. Villasenor’s survey, correctly noting that no survey uses perfect random sampling in that sense that respondents are randomly chosen from a complete and accurate single list of all the college students in the country. However, her defense blurs the distinction between carefully conducted probability sampling and the apparently more haphazard methods used by Dr. Villasenor.

Sophia McClennen of Penn State has labeled Villasenor’s survey an example of “blue-baiting,” in which conservative organizations attempt to manufacture doubt about free speech protections on campus in order to undermine public confidence in higher education.  (This may be working.)

At the very least, the controversy suggests that journalists should be careful to determine that professional sampling techniques are used before reporting survey results.  On the other hand, some college students did give these responses, even if they came from a biased sample. This suggests that high schools and universities should devote more attention to educating students on the meaning and scope of the First Amendment.

You may also be interested in reading:

Republicans Say Colleges are Bad For the Country

The Problem is Civil Obedience

Judging by the last few days’ letters to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Trumped-up controversy over NFL players protesting racial injustice has angered that segment of our country’s population that disapproves of civil disobedience. Trust the late historian Howard Zinn to have the perfect response. (Thanks to columnist Will McCorkle for reminding me of this quote.)

Civil disobedience is not our problem. Our problem is civil obedience. Our problem is that people all over the world have obeyed the dictates of leaders . . . and millions have been killed because of this obedience. . . Our problem is that people are obedient all over the world in the face of poverty and starvation and stupidity, and war, and cruelty. Our problem is that people are obedient while the jails are full of petty thieves . . . (and) the grand thieves are running the country. That’s our problem.

In this video, Matt Damon reads longer excerpts from the speech from which this passage was drawn. Dr. Zinn delivered it in 1970, when Americans were protesting the Vietnam War.

Of course, it’s more than a little incongruous to hear a speech condemning (among other things) wealth inequality read by an actor who earns $20 million or more for making a single film.

Inequality of Wealth

The Federal Reserve has released its 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances. The charts below were compiled by the People’s Policy Project. The takeaway is that in 2016 the top 10% owned 77% of the country’s wealth, and 38.5% is owned by the top 1%.

Not surprisingly, the gap between rich and poor is increasing. The top 1% owned “only” 29.9% of the nation’s wealth in 1989.

After declining slightly due to the great recession of 2008, the wealth gap between Blacks, Whites and Latinos is increasing again. Mean White family wealth is now greater than it was in 2007, but Blacks and Latinos have not yet recovered from the recession. (By the way, if these dollar amounts seem high, remember that they are means, which are skewed by the wealth of those at the top. The medians are much lower.)

This provides an interesting backdrop for the Republican Tax Plan, which cuts the top individual tax rate from 39.5% to 35%, and reduces the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. (Since capital-based income is concentrated among the rich, a corporate tax cut is simply another tax cut for the rich.) It also eliminates the estate tax. To partially pay for these giveaways, the President proposes cuts of $4.3 trillion to Social Security, Medicaid, public education and other non-military spending. The House Republican budget calls for a $5.8 trillion cut in these same programs.

Here are the results of an analysis by the Tax Policy Center of who benefits from Trump’s tax plan.

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On Obama’s Speech

Whose Opinion Matters?

A Plague on Both Your Houses

False equivalencies abound in today’s journalism. When journalists can’t, or won’t, distinguish between allegations directed at the Trump Foundation and those directed at the Clinton Foundation, there’s something seriously amiss. And false equivalencies are developing on a grand scale as a result of relentlessly negative news. If everything and everyone is portrayed negatively, there’s a leveling effect that opens the door to charlatans.

Thomas Patterson

President Trump’s recent statement that the tragedy in Charlottesville, VA was due to “hatred, bigotry and violence on many sides” has led to renewed interest in the concept of false equivalence or false balancing. False equivalence occurs when the media, following the journalistic norm of non-partisanship, give the incorrect impression that there is an equal amount of evidence supporting both sides of a controversial issue. For many years, media coverage of climate change implied that there were an equal amount of evidence supporting or questioning the claim that the Earth was getting warmer due to human activity. False balancing usually occurs with a single article, but when discussing several articles over a period of time, false equivalence is the better term.

I recently became aware of a report by Dr. Thomas Patterson, a political scientist with Harvard Kennedy School’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy, entitled “News Coverage of the 2016 General Election: How the Press Failed the Voters.” The data come from a content analysis of all campaign items appearing between the second week of August through Election Day in five newspapers (Los Angeles Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post and USA Today) and the main nightly newscasts of ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox and NBC. They were collected by Media Tenor, a firm which specializes in such analyses. Each campaign news item was classified according to its theme and whether its depiction of the candidate was positive, negative or not clear. Here are some highlights.

First, the basics. Donald Trump received more news coverage than Hillary Clinton throughout the campaign. Whether this was an advantage is not clear, however, given the tone of the coverage.

Those who believe in the folk theory of democracy—that voters have stable policy preferences, attend to the policy statements of the candidates, and vote for the candidate whose position most closely matches their own—will be disappointed by the themes of the 2016 coverage. The candidates’ policy stands were mentioned in only 10% of the stories. As is the recent past, the most frequent theme was “horserace” coverage—that is, who’s winning, usually illustrated by poll results.

The tone of the coverage of the nominees was consistently negative, both during the general election and the entire campaign, including the primaries.

Here it is, by week, for each candidate separately.

In the critical final weeks of the campaign, Trump’s coverage became slightly more positive while Clinton’s veered in the negative direction. This was undoubtedly due to FBI Director James Comey’s announcement that he was reopening the investigation of Clinton’s emails during her tenure as Secretary of State. This is shown more clearly in this chart of Clinton’s week-by-week “scandal” coverage.

Patterson computed a theme regarding the candidates’ fitness for the office of president, which combined reports on their policy positions, personal traits, leadership skills and ethical standards. According to the media, they were equivalent.

There has been a long-term trend toward greater negativity in coverage of the presidential candidates over the past 56 years.

The negativity is not confined to political candidates. Their coverage of other recent issues has also been negative. In psychology, negativity bias refers to the fact that negative information has a greater effect on human behavior than neutral or positive information. Media coverage of public issues may be both an effect and a cause of negativity bias.

Patterson makes two important points about these results. First, the relentlessly negative tone of the coverage contributes to cynicism and apathy among the voters, which could have reduced voter turnout. Research suggests that lower voter turnout benefits Republican candidates. Secondly, he argues that the uniformly negative coverage created the false impression of equivalence between the candidates. This raises the question of how researchers can demonstrate false equivalence empirically. To what external criterion can the media coverage be compared?

In some cases, external standards are available. For example, in the case of climate change, researchers can compute the percentage of peer-reviewed scientific articles that find evidence of human influence on the climate or can survey climatologists to find out what percentage of them believe that global warming is human-caused.

Patterson is writing for an academic and/or politically engaged audience that is likely to accept his assumptions that Clinton’s email scandal was less serious that the legal and ethical problems faced by Trump, and that Clinton was better prepared to be president than Trump. Obviously, not all voters agreed. Unfortunately, he presents no objective evidence to support these implicit claims, and it’s not even clear what data he could have consulted.

While false equivalence is an important source of media bias, demonstrating its existence empirically will continue to be a challenge.

You may also be interested in reading:

October Surprise

Framing the Debates

False Balancing: A Case Study

Moving in a Different Direction

The individual citizen has no federal constitutional right to vote for electors for the President of the United States.

Bush v. Gore (2000)

Justice Antonin Scalia emphasized during oral arguments in Bush v. Gore that there is no constitutionally guaranteed right to vote. For this reason, states can determine their own voting procedures, leading to some confusing and contradictory policies.

Voter turnout in the U. S. is notoriously low compared to other countries. Only 58% percent of the electorate showed up to vote in the 2016 presidential election. It was the first time in over 50 years that Americans voted without the protection of the Voting Rights Act. Since 2010, 22 states have passed new laws making it more difficult to vote, including voter I. D. laws, limits on the use of absentee ballots, and laws that make registration more difficult. In addition, an MIT survey estimated that 12% of voters, or 16 million people, encountered a problem while trying to vote, including long lines and defective voting machines.

Their problems are just beginning. According to the Brennan Center, so far in 2017, 99 bills have been introduced in 31 states that impose new voting restrictions. The Trump Justice Department recently announced that it has no objection to an Ohio bill that purges voters from the voting rolls if they miss three consecutive elections and fail to respond to a warning mailed to their last known address. Voter suppression laws can be seen as similar to gerrymandering in that they represent attempts by legislators to select their voters, rather than the reverse.

Those who vote in U. S. elections tend to be White, older, more affluent and more highly educated than the average citizen. People of color, young people and lower-income people are underrepresented. Voter suppression laws tend to enhance these differences. Since the groups that are most likely to be disenfranchised by them are more likely to vote for Democrats, it is not surprising that almost all these laws are passed in Republican-controlled states.

An alternative would be to make it easier for citizens to vote. One of the more promising ways to accomplish this is automatic voter registration (AVR). Oregon was the first state to enact an AVR law; it went into effect in 2016. A research team headed by Sean McElwee looked at the law and its results.

Under to the Oregon AVR law, eligible voters who have contact with the Department of Motor Vehicles are sent a letter informing them that they have been automatically added to the voter rolls. They can opt out of being registered by returning a postcard (8% opted out). This postcard can also be used to register with a political party (11% chose a party). Since Oregon has closed primaries, those who didn’t register with a party couldn’t vote in the primary.

In 2016, 186,050 people were registered for the first time through the AVR law. This was 66% of the new registrants for that year. In addition, 35,000 people whose registrations had lapsed were re-registered. A total of 67,902, or 36%, of these people voted in the 2016 election. Overall voter turnout in Oregon was 68%, up from 64% in 2012, and well above the national average. The authors estimate that 2-3% of the 4% increase in voter turnout was attributable to the AVR law.

AVR also affected the demographic composition of Oregon voters. Oregon’s voting electorate was 94% White, but 11% of those added to the rolls by AVR were people of color. The chart below compares the percentages of Black, Latino and Asian voters added by AVR to the existing electorate (non-AVR voters).Not surprisingly, AVR also reduced the average age of Oregon voters. 37% of the new AVR voters were between the ages of 18 and 29, compared to only 13% of non-AVR voters.Finally, AVR increased the percentage of low income people who voted in 2016. As shown in the chart, the new AVR voters were more likely than existing voters to come from lower income neighborhoods, and less likely to come from affluent neighborhoods.The Oregon AVR law is unusual when compared to the much greater number of laws that make it more difficult to vote. However, this raises an interesting issue. An opponent of AVR could argue that the Oregon law is nothing more than an attempt by Democrats to increase their chances in subsequent elections, and that laws that try to increase voter turnout are just as partisan as laws that try to suppress it. Since there is no constitutional right to vote and no uniform set of federal laws defining voting procedures, any change in a state law that affects voter turnout can be criticized as unfair by one party or the other.

Does the American public have a preference between encouraging and discouraging voting? An April 2017 survey by the Pew Research Center asked a representative sample to choose between the alternatives of requiring people to register to vote ahead of time, or doing “everything possible” to make it easy for citizens to vote. Here are the results, overall, and by political party.Unfortunately, these two alternatives are not true opposites. Voter registration is not the only procedure that makes it more difficult for people to vote. In addition, the question doesn’t impose any limits on doing “everything possible” to make it easier to vote. (Should they send a limo to my door on election day?) It is easy to imagine that, had respondents been given some rationale for restricting access to the ballot box, such as preventing “voter fraud,” the results might have been different. Nevertheless, we can take some comfort in the fact that, in the abstract, the public views making it easier for people to vote more favorably than making it more difficult.

You may also be interested in reading:

Why the Minority Rules

Don’t Forget Not to Vote

Voter I.D. and Race, Part 1

Mr. Crump Don’t Like It

Am I the first to notice the similarity between the names of our president and E. H. “Boss” Crump, the mayor of Memphis from 1910-1915, whose Democratic political machine dominated Tennessee state politics almost until his death in 1954?

E. H. “Boss” Crump

Unlike most Southern politicians, Boss Crump was not opposed to Blacks voting. He formed corrupt alliances with conservative Black businessmen and shared the proceeds from prostitution, gambling and drugs in the Beale Street area. These coalitions, along with a strong police force, helped him to control Black voters and to maintain racial inequality in Memphis for decades. Memphis is still one of the nation’s poorest cities and has one of its highest crime rates.

One of composer W. C. Handy’s earliest hits, “The Memphis Blues,” is said to have originated as a campaign song for Boss Crump when he first ran for mayor. Crump is also the subject of the blues song “Mr. Crump Don’t Like It,” recorded in 1927 by the Memphis Sheiks, whose vocalist was Frank Stokes. The song should not be taken literally; Boss Trump was not opposed to vice as long as he profited from it.