{"id":1380,"date":"2020-05-09T16:08:38","date_gmt":"2020-05-09T20:08:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/?p=1380"},"modified":"2020-05-09T16:10:06","modified_gmt":"2020-05-09T20:10:06","slug":"testing-testing-testing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/testing-testing-testing\/","title":{"rendered":"Testing, Testing, Testing"},"content":{"rendered":"

If we\u2019re not willing to remain sheltered in place indefinitely, and if we\u2019re not willing to lose up to a million lives to the coronavirus, the alternative is massive testing followed by contact tracing. Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Paul Romer of NYU claims to have done the math to determine how much testing we must do to bring the virus under control and keep it there. He is interviewed by Dr. Aaron Carroll for his weekly podcast, Healthcare Triage<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the interview, they refer to R_{0 <\/sub>(\u201cR zero\u201d), which refers to the rate of transmission of the disease. If R_{0<\/sub> equals 1, each person with the virus infects exactly one other person. If R_{0<\/sub> is greater than 1, the disease spreads exponentially. If R_{0<\/sub> is less than 1, the disease eventually dies out. Romer believes he has determined how much testing we need to do to keep R_{0 <\/sub>below 1.<\/span><\/p>\n}}}}}

<\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\nYou may have noticed that in my last post, I referred to the possibility of losing up to 2 million lives in order to achieve herd immunity. \u00a0This was assuming a mortality rate of 1%. \u00a0Romer assumes a mortality rate of .5%; hence he arrives at a figure of 1 million deaths. \u00a0Of course, the true mortality rate is unknown.<\/p>\nYou may also be interested in reading:<\/strong><\/p>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/therell-be-more-death\/\">\u201cThere\u2019ll Be More Death\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<\/body>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If we\u2019re not willing to remain sheltered in place indefinitely, and if we\u2019re not willing to lose up to a million lives to the coronavirus, the alternative is massive testing followed by contact tracing. Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Paul Romer of NYU claims to have done the math to determine how much testing we must … <a href=\"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/testing-testing-testing\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading Testing, Testing, Testing<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[51,152],"tags":[181],"class_list":["post-1380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health","category-social-policy","tag-coronavirus"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6FkJj-mg","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1380"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1380\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1383,"href":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1380\/revisions\/1383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/l-stires.com\/thinking-slowly\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}